Can Musk Create Another Stock Market Rocket?

SvD Näringsliv

After the Tesla success, Elon Musk is back. Now he’s taking his rocket company – which today contains more AI than rockets – to the stock market with an astronomical valuation. Can it become another market phenomenon?

When entrepreneur Adam Neumann was preparing to take his co-working company WeWork public in 2019, he had a challenge. How do you make an office hotel sound more exciting than it is?

Neumann decided that the company’s “mission is to elevate the world’s consciousness.” That didn’t quite work. When the world saw the company’s numbers, a backlash began that led to its collapse. And when you read the prospectus for Elon Musk’s rocket company SpaceX, it’s impossible not to think back to WeWork’s fate.

The rocket company’s mission includes, among other things, to “extend the light of consciousness to the stars.” On top of that, a bonus will be paid out if the company manages to build a colony on Mars with at least one million inhabitants.

It sounds a bit like a fever dream. But then again – if there’s anyone who can sell this dream, it’s Elon Musk. He’s done it before, with Tesla’s electric cars.

In many ways, SpaceX has the opposite problem from WeWork. It’s hard to think of anything more exciting than a rocket company. But when you look more closely at the business, you realize that space itself has become an increasingly small part of it.

This is most visible in the section of the prospectus meant to describe the size of the market. In a clearly laid-out bar chart, you find “Space-enabled solutions” – meaning the actual space business. It is the smallest of all categories, valued at $370 billion. Next comes Starlink, which uses satellites to deliver broadband. That market is considered worth more than twice as much.

Those figures are barely visible compared to the “Enterprise applications” category, which appears to cover all software used by all companies everywhere in the world. In this category, SpaceX can offer AI services, through the acquisition of Musk’s company xAI. In total, that market is considered worth $22.7 trillion.

SpaceX is therefore claiming that its total addressable market is roughly the size of the entire US GDP for 2025.

What is called SpaceX is no longer just about rockets and satellites. It is now a company that also encompasses AI development. And that is somewhere around where the IPO finds its logic.

It will take a great deal of money in the years ahead.

The AI business – and the rockets too, for that matter – is losing enormous amounts of money. And it will only get worse. Capital expenditures – fixed assets such as hardware – are running so far this year at roughly seven times higher for AI than for rockets. In the first three months of the year, SpaceX lost more than $4 billion, slightly less than its total loss for all of 2025. The losses are accelerating sharply, apparently to keep pace in the AI race.

All of that might be something you could live with. Elon Musk has done the impossible before. Those who invested early in Tesla have had life-changing returns. Here comes a new company from the same man, and you as a small investor will have the chance to get on board. The list of enthusiastic Tesla shareholders is long – and so is the list of those who regret having missed Tesla’s run.

Needing a lot of money to invest in the future is not, in principle, an obstacle to listing a company. On the contrary, it is often the very purpose of an IPO.

But then we get to the valuation. The exact price won’t be set until just before trading begins, but the signal is clear. The intention is for this to be the world’s largest IPO ever. Talk is that the valuation will be at least $1.75 trillion, possibly as high as $2 trillion.

Sticking to the lower end, SpaceX’s intended valuation sits at roughly 94 times revenue. By comparison, Apple and Microsoft trade at around 10 times, and Nvidia at 21 times. Tesla, which is known for trading far above its automotive peers, is at 15 times.

The valuation is, as you can see, on an entirely different planet. And the reason for that appears to be Musk, AI, and some projected colony on Mars.

If there is any sanity left in the world, SpaceX’s IPO could mark a turning point for this phase of the explosive AI economy. OpenAI and Anthropic are both said to be heading toward their own listings at a rapid pace, while interest in AI remains at record levels. But at some point the market – and perhaps people in general – will say that enough is enough. This is too bubbly, too expensive. We can’t keep going like this.

But any such sanity does not appear to be on the horizon.

Not on this planet – or any other that SpaceX might one day visit.

This analysis was first published in SvD Näringsliv, in Swedish, on May 23rd, 2026. This piece was translated from Swedish by Claude. Some phrasing may differ from a human translation.

Insider trading exposes Nvidia

SvD Näringsliv

This analysis was first published in SvD Näringsliv, in Swedish, on May 20th, 2026. This piece was translated from Swedish by Claude. Some phrasing may differ from a human translation.

Is now a good time to buy Nvidia? Ahead of the quarterly report, that’s the question everyone with a stock portfolio is asking. The answer insider trading gives is unambiguous.

Insider trading has an undeservedly bad reputation. It often sounds like something shady is going on. The label “insider crime” is probably the association that muddies the waters.

But the most common form of insider trading — the kind that isn’t criminal — is where executives at publicly listed companies report their transactions. Purchases and sales. And through these, you can sometimes make out a story about the company in question. Ahead of Nvidia reporting its quarterly results late Wednesday evening, SvD examined precisely that story — and it is both crystal clear and unusual.

Colette Kress, CFO of Nvidia, cannot have been bored at work lately. When she started in 2013, the share price was around $0.40. Today the equivalent figure is around $225 — a record high in the company’s history. Several executives at Nvidia receive shares as part of their compensation — including Kress, who has ultimate responsibility for the company’s finances. After such a run, you can understand the impulse to secure your personal finances by selling some shares.

And her personal finances are well secured today. To put it mildly.

Over the past three years, Kress — an insider at Nvidia — has sold shares worth more than $160 million, over SEK 1.5 billion at today’s exchange rate. As recently as this March, she sold shares worth just under $11 million.

Kress is not alone. An analysis I conducted shows that Nvidia insiders have done nothing but sell shares over the past five years. There is not a single insider purchase registered in that period. Neither executives nor board members have put a single dollar of their own money into buying the company’s shares since September 2020 — and even then, it was only one person who bought. At that point the share price was just under $13, in a transaction worth under half a million dollars, according to filings with the SEC. That weighs rather lightly against the selling that followed.

Nvidia’s founder and CEO Jensen Huang has also sold heavily. In just the past three years he has sold around $1.9 billion worth of shares — just under SEK 18 billion. Huang’s shares, like those of several other insiders, have been sold on a pre-set schedule. The purpose is to try to avoid speculation about why an insider chose to sell at a particular moment. The schedule avoids sending unintended market signals. But the quantity of shares sold is still controlled by the insider in question. And most importantly — you don’t actually have to sell your shares at all.

To add some nuance to Huang’s sales, it is worth looking at how many shares he still holds. He owns just over 3 percent of Nvidia’s total shares, a stake currently worth around $183 billion. Over the past three years he has sold roughly 1 percent of that total.

A personal finance advisor would immediately say that Huang’s disposals are on the low side — despite the large sums involved. That large a proportion of your wealth generally should not sit in a single asset. On the other hand, we are well beyond the argument of securing Huang’s personal future here. We are talking about billions of dollars in sales in just the recent period.

Ahead of Wednesday evening’s quarterly report, the market will be looking for signs of whether the rocket the Nvidia share has become can continue to climb. The pressure from AI companies suggests that demand far exceeds the supply of Nvidia’s valuable chips.

At the same time, it is remarkable that those with the most direct insight into the question — all insiders in the executive team and in the company’s top tier — do not appear to share that view. Why is everyone selling? Why has not a single senior executive bought a single Nvidia share in the past five years, despite this front-row view of the ongoing boom? Even if you receive shares as compensation, you could simply hold them rather than sell.

Insider trading does not give you all the answers about a company’s future. But it raises a number of interesting questions. In Nvidia’s case, the insider sales may stand in contrast to the hype the company continues to generate. Those on the inside are not spending their own money to buy shares. But they are quite happy for others to do so. There is something to take from that.

Share prices in this piece have been adjusted to account for Nvidia’s stock split.

Was the battery purchase a cover?

SvD Näringsliv

This analysis was first published in SvD Näringsliv, in Swedish, on May 13th, 2026. This piece was translated from Swedish by Claude. Some phrasing may differ from a human translation.

Why did Lyten ultimately buy Northvolt? New information suggests the battery factory was only part of the value. Access to cheap green electricity proved decisive — and it may be routed to an American tech giant.

For a battery factory, there has been a surprising lack of discussion about actual batteries when it comes to Northvolt. Perhaps because relatively few of them ever left the factory while it was running?

A new book raises questions about whether things will improve under new management.

In the aftermath of the Northvolt collapse, it looks as though access to green electricity — rather than battery manufacturing — is one of the primary assets on offer. And moreover, it was what tipped the scales in favor of the American company Lyten’s rescue of Northvolt. Behind this obscure company, you also find considerably more well-known names that were part of the deal.

SvD has previously reported that Lyten — as part of purchasing Northvolt — acquired a new neighbor in Skellefteå: the American data center company Edgeconnex. That company is in turn owned by the Swedish private equity firm EQT.

Edgeconnex plans to build a new data center — potentially the largest in Sweden — on the land right next to Northvolt. Daniel Ketema, communications director at EQT, told SvD in February that “the data center has nothing to do with Lyten, beyond the geographic proximity. These are two completely separate operations.”

The new book “Northvoltfallet” by business journalist Gunnar Lindstedt suggests this may be a truth with some modification.

The book describes how EQT extended Lyten a bridge loan of SEK 2–3 billion to enable the purchase of Northvolt’s battery factory for SEK 900 million, plus real estate and land for roughly the same amount.

Why would EQT have an interest in helping Lyten with the financing? Because, as part of this circular deal, Edgeconnex will gain access to a portion of the green electricity that Skellefteå Kraft had previously guaranteed to Northvolt, as well as the adjacent land. This is according to sources in Lindstedt’s book. SvD approached EQT for comment, but the company has not responded.

According to the book’s sources, Edgeconnex will pay around SEK 5 billion to secure both the land and the electricity agreement from Lyten. That would allow the loan to EQT to be repaid. The circle is closed. The operations are entirely separate — but the original deal could not have happened without the initial loan.

What the deal highlights is the true value that players — old and new alike — are trying to capture in these green tech transactions. It’s about cheap green electricity. But when it comes to electricity access of this scale, you can’t simply plug into a grid and get going. It requires planning and permits.

Being able to use existing electricity agreements already in place is therefore a substantially faster and smoother solution. Skellefteå Kraft was ready for Northvolt. And now some of that allocated electricity may go to a data center instead.

Lyten seems to have developed a taste for the model. In March they announced they were establishing a “Lyten Industrial Hub” in Poland. It is being built — just as in Skellefteå — next to Lyten’s (formerly Northvolt’s) battery factory in Gdansk. Lyten CEO Dan Cook said in a press release that the purpose was to “combine advanced materials and battery energy storage with digital infrastructure for AI.”

But what AI data centers need right now is not large quantities of batteries. They need electricity. A great deal of electricity. And Lyten’s battery manufacturing in Northvolt’s former factories has not yet begun.

As Northvolt is now being rebuilt, it is worth examining what was promised from the start, what was actually delivered — and what the operation looks set to become.

What was promised were Swedish environmentally friendly batteries that would, among other things, supply European automotive manufacturers. A strategically important component to have close at hand in a geopolitically complicated world.

What we got was a Swedish factory with Chinese machinery, operated by Chinese workers, using imported Chinese cathode material. The Swedish cathode that was meant to be produced simply could not be made to sufficient quality or in sufficient quantity. And it all ended in a bankruptcy described as the largest in Sweden since the Kreuger crash.

What does it look set to become? The very thing that was supposed to make these batteries green in the first place — access to electricity in northern Sweden — may now go to an American data center instead.

The end customer — those who intend to use the data center once it is built — is, according to Lindstedt’s book, a familiar name: Google. When politicians celebrate Northvolt’s survival, they would do well to update their picture of what the operation may actually become.

Instead of a major push for green batteries, we may also end up simply helping an American tech giant with its electricity supply.

You can do that. But it is very far from what was promised at the start.

Thousands fired because of “AI”

SvD Näringsliv

AI is frightening corporate executives – and forcing them to make layoffs. That’s what they want us to believe, anyway. So far, it looks more like a convenient excuse than a revolution.

The CEO looks concerned. “We have made the difficult decision to reduce our workforce,” he says. We’ve heard it before.

Variations on this theme are now everywhere in the business world – at tech companies especially.

Coinbase is cutting 14 percent of its staff, Cloudflare is trimming 20 percent, and Meta is laying off a tenth of its employees. But pointing at AI is easier than taking responsibility for a business that isn’t performing well enough.

The public explanation for why these thousands of jobs are disappearing always seems to be the same. It’s AI. Sometimes the company needs to invest more in AI, sometimes AI has disrupted operations, or AI has made it possible to become more efficient.

Either way, it’s AI’s fault we ended up here.

This week, Brian Armstrong, CEO of crypto company Coinbase, wrote a similar explanation for the company’s upcoming layoffs. But in the paragraph before, you could sense something else was going on. “Crypto is also facing the next phase of broader adoption,” he wrote.

A few days later, the company’s quarterly report arrived, and it became clear that the phase Armstrong is in now is something of a minor catastrophe. The company posted a large loss where analysts had expected a profit. Transaction revenues – the very foundation of Coinbase’s business as a trading platform – came in nearly half a billion kronor below expectations. The company – and the crypto market as a whole – has serious problems.

When the underlying business is limping along, it’s easier for executives to blame AI. The numbers don’t support that thesis, however, according to a new report from the Swedish Trygghetsrådet.

Between 2023 and 2025, 50,000 laid-off white-collar workers in the private sector were analyzed. So far, there are no patterns suggesting that industries or companies with high AI exposure have laid off more people than others.

Individual tasks can be affected by AI – jobs change – but the much-discussed wave of AI-driven layoffs can’t be found in the data. Even in the US, where the AI boom is biggest, unemployment is roughly the same as it was six years ago. Before ChatGPT stirred things up.

So what is actually happening? Here are three concepts that might explain what’s going on.

The first is what’s known as the Jevons paradox. It comes from a 19th-century British economist who showed that increased coal efficiency didn’t reduce demand for the resource – it increased it. The more efficient coal use became, the more coal was needed.

The same principle may apply to AI. Rather than replacing workers, AI may end up requiring more of them to manage it – because AI enables a kind of productive work that wasn’t previously possible. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella has billions of reasons to be biased here, but he has said he believes AI is going through the Jevons paradox right now.

The second concept is Parkinson’s Law. It holds that work expands to fill the time available to complete it. Everyone has experienced this, at home as much as at work. How long does it take to clean the house? If guests are arriving in fifteen minutes, it takes fifteen minutes. Otherwise you can wander around fiddling for hours.

In an AI context, this means that while AI handles many tasks for you, you simply work on something else instead. Perhaps the remaining work now takes longer, or you’ve taken on new tasks that weren’t done before. The upshot: you’re still working full days, even with AI there to help.

The third and final concept is the simplest. Many companies aren’t doing very well right now. The global economy and stock markets are propped up by a handful of enormous tech giants, data center construction, and the promise of an imminent AI revolution. But what doesn’t show up in the indices is that a lot of businesses are struggling. And that, in turn, means layoffs happen from time to time.

Companies have struggled and laid off staff in every era. But blaming AI is easier than admitting you’ve run the business poorly. So sure, AI does serve a purpose in the workplace – it’s our era’s scapegoat. Just not a revolution in the labor market. At least not yet.

This analysis was first published in SvD Näringsliv, in Swedish, on May 10th, 2026. This piece was translated from Swedish by Claude. Some phrasing may differ from a human translation.

The criticism is right — but Stenbeck is pointing at the wrong target

SvD Näringsliv

This analysis was first published in SvD Näringsliv, in Swedish, on May 6th, 2026. This piece was translated from Swedish by Claude. Some phrasing may differ from a human translation.

Kinnevik’s strategy was sharply criticized by Cristina Stenbeck at the company’s own annual general meeting this week. But those comments should reasonably have been self-criticism.

Annual general meetings tend to be fairly sleepy affairs. A lawyer reads out a lot of procedural points, most shareholders have cast their votes by post before the meeting starts — and afterwards there’s coffee at the listed company’s expense.

That kind of AGM was evidently not what Kinnevik’s chairman Cristina Stenbeck had in mind. Change was to be signaled.

“The board’s view is that the previous strategy has been too risky,” she told the attending shareholders. “What’s needed instead is more cash flow-generating companies as a base for the business.”

The larger — unanswered — question hung in the room. The share price has fallen more than 78 percent over five years. How did Kinnevik end up here in the first place?

To answer that, we need to look at the basics of how Swedish corporate governance works. Sometimes people oversimplify with “the board governs and the CEO executes.” In practice, the CEO often has considerably more say than that. But the board holds the ultimate trump card: the ability to dismiss them. The question of whether the company has the right CEO — and thus the right strategy — is something the board should continuously ask itself.

But there is another level, and it is particularly important for Kinnevik in the situation they now find themselves in.

The owners — via the AGM — appoint the board. And among the larger and most influential owners, we find chairman Cristina Stenbeck herself.

When Kinnevik’s obviously failed strategy is reviewed, this dimension needs to be included. Kinnevik’s former CEO, Georgi Ganev, did not execute the strategy in a vacuum. It was approved by the board, and continued for several years.

Ganev took over as CEO in the summer of 2017, and the sale of Tele2 — exactly the kind of cash flow-generating holding Kinnevik is now seeking — wasn’t completed until 2024. Where was the oversight then? Where were the owners?

They wouldn’t have had to look very far to find inspiration for the model Stenbeck is now proposing. She talks about “building a backbone” for Kinnevik — that is, more stable companies that don’t bleed money and can finance new investments — which is exactly how Kinnevik used to operate. Companies like Billerud Korsnäs (sold in 2013) and Tele2 served precisely that function in relatively recent memory.

Beyond this new backbone, the investments in climate technology are to be wound down, an internal organizational review is to be conducted, and investments in new companies are to be paused. Furthermore, the company should be selective about investments in existing holdings.

What’s left? We have an investment company that currently has no intention of making any new investments. Even if you’re already in the existing portfolio, it seems you can’t necessarily rely on backing.

The clearest thing to emerge was that some of the company’s own staff would be let go, and an acquisition would be sought to replace the cash flows lost with Tele2. It’s not the most inspiring action plan anyone has ever heard.

The board’s most important task, as noted, is to ensure the company has the right CEO. Now they must prove they are capable of precisely that task. Market confidence is eroded, much of the money has already been distributed to the owners — and the share price just keeps falling. An optimist might say it can only go up from here.

What’s needed is a visionary optimist. Someone who can look beyond Kinnevik’s weak portfolio as it stands, and set a course toward something new. A destination where the share price moves in the right direction and Kinnevik’s position within Swedish business life can be reclaimed. It will take a while.

The situation is tough — but it has had a silver lining for some. One of Sweden’s leading investment companies has been gradually dismantled while its owners collected dividends worth billions.

Receiving generous dividends is one part of what comes with being a major shareholder.

Now, the rest of the shareholders would like to see the other part too — governing responsibly and taking accountability.

An enormous success? Quite the opposite

SvD Näringsliv

This analysis was first published in SvD Näringsliv, in Swedish, on April 27th, 2026. This piece was translated from Swedish by Claude. Some phrasing may differ from a human translation.

The Swedish tech industry sees the multi-billion sale of Cursor as an enormous success. Beyond one individual Swede’s personal finances, it should reasonably be exactly the opposite.

It did not take many minutes before Stockholm was jubilant over the coding tool Cursor’s proposed sale to SpaceX. Yet another victory for the Swedish ecosystem of tech companies? It is rather a masterclass in confirmation bias. People see what they want to see — and not much else.

What has happened is this: an American company is buying another American company, whose one co-founder is Swedish — but he doesn’t even work there anymore. The reason for the sale is, however, interesting to look at more closely — and it is not as rosy as it first appears.

Let us begin by describing Cursor. It is not every day a company that most people have barely heard of is proposed to be sold for 550 billion kronor. The company is actually called Anysphere, and its product — Cursor — helps developers write code using AI. To do this, they use a range of different AI models from companies such as OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google. Relatively recently they also launched their own model, Composer, as a way to reduce their dependence on the giants.

It is precisely that dependence — and its costs — that has put Cursor in a tricky situation.

This week The Information revealed that Cursor has, until now, had negative gross margins. For those not entirely comfortable with financial terminology, this can be explained more simply. When a company takes its revenues and deducts the cost of being able to deliver the service — that gives you the gross margin. In Cursor’s case, they lose money even there. After that, a host of other costs are added — marketing and product development, for example. This means that for every krona Cursor sells for, they lose more than a krona. That model is, for understandable reasons, tricky to sustain for too long.

For companies that are growing rapidly, however, this is not entirely unusual. In theory, the problem should resolve itself as sales increase and the company grows. Many startups have gone under while waiting for this breakeven point. And even if you are on the way to that point, it costs a great deal of money before you get there. This also applies to AI giants such as Anthropic and OpenAI, which are nowhere near profitability.

Cursor was thus out on the market trying to raise several new billion dollars in financing. They received some offers, but also encountered a degree of scepticism — despite the company’s popular product.

Then the fundraising became a sale instead.

The investors’ concern stemmed from Cursor’s supplier, and now competitor, Anthropic and its product Claude. When you use Cursor, it is often Claude doing the heavy lifting in the background. Cursor is an intermediary layer between the end user and the AI services beneath, much like Swedish Lovable, for example.

The prospective investors worried about the possibility that customers could bypass Cursor and just use Claude instead. Which many already do today. If Claude were also to decide not to allow Cursor to use their service, problems could quickly arise.

It was at this point that Elon Musk’s SpaceX stepped in.

They recently merged with Musk’s other company — xAI — which had in turn merged with the social network X (which Musk also owned). SpaceX will buy Cursor for 550 billion kronor, or pay around 92 billion kronor in a fee to Cursor if the deal is not completed for some reason. With the rocket company’s imminent stock market listing — and its reportedly galactic valuation of around 16,000 billion kronor — the price tag is relatively manageable.

For the venture capitalists who invested in Cursor, the deal provides a good return. Selling portfolio companies at high prices is the entire business model. The Swedish co-founder Arvid Lunnemark from Malmö will almost certainly become a billionaire in the process. Like Joel Hellermark, who sold Sana to Workday for 10 billion kronor, the timing is elegant. Interest in AI, and the valuations that follow, has never been higher.

Looking at the value for the Swedish tech ecosystem, it is not obvious that one should celebrate the deal. Cursor was sold because the alternatives to continuing were becoming very limited. The company has never made a single krona in profit, and they burned billions of dollars before reaching this point.

They managed to get out of their precarious financial situation before it was too late. But once again, a large American company is gobbling up a smaller one. One of the few conceivable challengers to the existing oligopoly of AI companies disappears. And one with a Swedish connection at that.

After the Cursor deal, a Sweden-born founder living in San Francisco will become extraordinarily wealthy. Hats off for that. But if anyone thinks this is something to celebrate in Stockholm, they have probably missed the point.

0,75x speed + 3 cultural gems & 3 conversations

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In the make-shift podcast studio I have in my office, there’s a small paper note pinned to the wall.

It reads: “0,75x speed”.

It’s a reminder of some advice I got from my friend Magnus. Talk slightly slower, take your time, and don’t get ahead of those who are listening.

“0,75x speed” serves well as a metaphor, far beyond our podcast.

As AI enables us to do more – and faster – the emphasis is leaning heavily on output and efficiency. I get caught up in this myself sometimes too. Feeling productive is somewhat addictive. Listening to sped-up podcasts, getting summaries of books, letting the AI build projects for you while you are sleeping.

But what is “productive” in this sense? If it didn’t need to be done from the beginning, does doing it anyway still count?

Another way of thinking about this newly found efficiency is going in the opposite direction. What can you do, that the AI can’t? How you can shape a point of view that a large language model never could?

I would argue that books are not for summarizing. Even skimming them will give you more than an AI-generated summary. And travelling to places will offer a perspective no LLM will give you, however fast and precise it may become.

As the world seems to speed up, a way to manage it could be doing the opposite. Doing what only you can do – in the way only you can do it.

/Björn


Three cultural gems

Flesh – David Szalay
A book that doesn’t describe anything of what almost every other book in the fiction genre covers. No inner monologue, no thoughts. Just flesh. A fascinating read. And a Booker prize winner, which should be enough to make you curious.

Oops – Momo Boyd
This new song flirts with 2000s R&B but still feels contemporary. The whole setting – new album + Colors video – feels the making of a new star.

Trainjazz.com
This is what the internet was made for. Real-time data from subway trains in New York is translated to a piece of jazz that changes depending on the movement. And if you’re close to certain trains, their notes grow louder. A work of art.


Three conversations about the books of Silicon Valley

Together with (my friend and) historian David Larsson Heidenblad, I did a series of conversations centered around the ideas, knowledge and history of Silicon Valley. Starting with a variety of influential books, we went through what can be learned from them, how these ideas have been used in practice, and how you can use them yourself – without having to run a startup.

Click the links above to listen to the conversations, if you’re curious – and a full book list is here.

Originally published on Substack on April 26th, 2026.

New CEO inherits Apple’s biggest problem

SvD Näringsliv

This analysis was first published in SvD Näringsliv, in Swedish, on April 21st, 2026. This piece was translated from Swedish by Claude. Some phrasing may differ from a human translation.

Tim Cook leaves behind a well-run Apple — but without the same lustre. Now his successor John Ternus faces decisive choices.

In a bright atrium at Apple Park, hardware chief John Ternus walks past. It is January 2024 and speculation about the Apple succession is already under way. As he passes, a voice says “there goes Apple’s next CEO, probably.”

Just over two years later, the person was proved right. Tim Cook steps aside and John Ternus takes over as CEO of one of the world’s most important tech companies. And much suggests that more major changes are on the way.

That an internal candidate would take over Apple was expected. Ternus has worked there since 2001 and celebrates his 25th anniversary this summer. The name is probably unknown to most people outside Apple’s walls — and that is the only thing that matters. Given the very particular corporate culture that prevails inside the tech giant, Ternus is a safe pair of hands.

Behind the scenes, there have been further major changes in the leadership tier. Apple’s long-serving CFO Luca Maestri stepped down a little over a year ago. Policy chief Lisa Jackson has left and chief lawyer Kate Adams is on her way out. The internally prominent COO Jeff Williams, Cook’s former closest partner, recently retired.

A new leadership is taking shape at Apple. Eyes are now turning to two grey-haired men who have been there a long time — perhaps too long. The neat Craig Federighi, sometimes jokingly called “Hair Force One,” heads software and has been there for 20 years. Services chief Eddy Cue joined as far back as 1989 and has therefore worked at Apple for 37 years.

Apple likes continuity — but a new CEO will reasonably want to build his own team. If change is to be effected at some point, these two gentlemen will be unavoidable to ignore.

Filling Steve Jobs’ shoes was no easy task for Tim Cook. But looking at the share price during his time as CEO, there is nothing to complain about. Apple is a very well-run and thriving company. The challenge for Ternus will be to maintain that, while trying to recapture some of the lustre and innovation that Jobs once stood for.

The iPhone turns 20 next year — and Apple has not seen anything of that calibre since. There have been attempts: cars (never released), face computers (nobody wanted them), and AI services (not released in time, and nobody wanted those either). Computers and headphones have sold like never before, but there are several competitors that are comparable.

Ternus comes from the hardware side, so a reasonable assumption is that the most exciting things may show up there rather than in new services. Apple’s investment in chips has, for example, positioned them as a potential AI winner in a scenario where models become easier to run on every phone. There has been talk of foldable phones for a while — something that may arrive this year. There is an investment in smart glasses — not yet released — where Apple is likely to have a quite different product from what Meta has done with Ray-Ban, for instance.

Having a more technically refined product is, however, no guarantee of success. Apple Vision Pro is substantially more advanced than Meta Quest — but the latter is considerably more popular.

Tim Cook’s greatest achievement at Apple was establishing the company in China. It is now both an important manufacturing partner and a large consumer market. At the time, China was complex, but nowhere near as geopolitically sensitive as today. Tensions with the US are at their highest for a long time, and the political winds are blowing clearly in the direction of large American domestic investments.

Ternus now inherits this tricky balancing act. Cook remains on the board and can help with the relationships, but major questions for the company remain. Does an Apple without China exist? And if not, how does one navigate the increasingly sensitive political environment?

The above is probably not Ternus’s favourite question. He is an engineer who likes to build things. To feel the materials and ensure they suit their purpose.

Now he is taking over the world’s third most valuable company — and the industry’s overwhelmingly most influential player. Staying in that position requires more than solving engineering problems.

Ternus is neither a Jobs nor a Cook. That suggests a new era for Apple is beginning now.

Anxiety grows at the elite’s conference

SvD Näringsliv

This analysis was first published in SvD Näringsliv, in Swedish, on April 20th, 2026. This piece was translated from Swedish by Claude. Some phrasing may differ from a human translation.

Must humanity merge with AI to survive? At the TED conference, anxiety about the development is growing — and exposing a rift in the elite’s view of what lies ahead.

It smells of pine inside the Vancouver Convention Center. The TED conference is taking place in a kind of wooden amphitheatre, where a select group is already sitting at the very front — donors with their own entrance. Over 1,500 people have travelled to western Canada to listen to speakers on everything from lead poisoning to covid vaccines and relationships.

One question keeps recurring, however. And it creates a clear unease and friction among the well-heeled audience.

Should we embrace AI development fully? Or should we rather avoid it at all costs?

TED broke through on a broad front in the mid-2010s. “TED Talks” — short, directed presentations from the main stage — became their own category of video on the internet. A cultural reference point one could cite at dinner parties.

The audience is a mixture of philanthropists, researchers, activists, and tech workers. A simpler way to group them is as an elite. Influential people who, with both cultural and economic capital, shape opinion and societal development.

This elite’s view of the AI question is therefore particularly interesting. Whether educational initiatives for children in developing countries are a good thing — another recurring theme — is fairly uncontroversial. The question of self-driving cars is considerably harder, given both road safety and the jobs that will inevitably disappear as they roll out into the world.

This theme runs like a thread through the conference. TED host Chris Anderson returns to it many times during the week. “The future is a dance between humans and AI,” he says. So how will this dance unfold?

Tech entrepreneur D Scott Phoenix gives us one vision. He has previously sold an AI company to Google and has a definitive view of how things should develop. “We will merge with AI, because the alternative of being replaced is worse,” he says.

Phoenix refers to the fact that merging is the first thing we did as humanity — through our cells — and that this is a natural and inevitable continuation of that path. Either we create descendants or we become fossils. That is the choice we face.

He tells of a dinner he attended in Silicon Valley recently with other AI leaders. The participants were “names you would recognise,” he says, without going into exactly who. When asked whether the AI leaders believed there was more than a 10 percent chance that AI would kill most people on earth, many raised their hands.

That is the scenario Phoenix is weighing up against. It is therefore better to merge and bring AI development as close to humanity as possible. Because the alternative could mean the end of humanity as we know it.

The audience gasps as he speaks.

Others have a more restrained vision. Steve Huffman, CEO of the online forum Reddit, presents his company’s product as a kind of counter-movement to the automated.

“Reddit is like a city,” he explains — a place where people build relationships with each other on their own terms.

It sounds good. Like a relief for many, after Phoenix’s talk. But when Huffman receives a standing ovation, one gets the feeling that most people in the room have not spent much time on Reddit. It is certainly human, but it does not take many clicks before the rose-tinted picture takes on a different form.

Austrian founder Peter Steinberger of Open Claw is the most relaxed of all. His creation enables people to create their own AI agents that work autonomously. But it came about somewhat by accident. After testing his new AI robot in an internet forum with others, he shut down his computer and went to bed. When he woke up, the robot had started the computer itself and continued talking.

In the end, Steinberger had to pull the plug out of the wall to be sure it would stop. He laughs at the whole thing and says he does not recommend letting one’s AI robots run completely out of control.

TED host Chris Anderson steps onto the stage after the talk looking worried. He says Steinberger frightens him. How can he take this so lightly?

Steinberger smiles, wearing a blue blazer with a toy lobster — Open Claw’s mascot — tucked into the breast pocket.

“The lobster has been released,” he says, “and it won’t go back to the aquarium again.”

There is something fateful about both the presentations and the conversations around them. Have we already passed the point where AI will take over completely, or is there still time to change course?

British neuroscientist Anil Seth offers a different perspective. We may be standing at a crossroads with technology — but merging is not on the table, according to him. Overestimating AI is underestimating yourself as a human, he believes.

Seth distinguishes between intelligence and consciousness. Humans are unique in displaying high levels of both simultaneously, which makes it difficult for us to assess technological development correctly.

“We see consciousness where there is none,” says Seth, and urges resistance to anthropomorphising technology. Doing so — thinking of machines as something with consciousness — makes us psychologically vulnerable. And through that, we risk being manipulated by them.

The questions about what humanity’s role will be in an AI world are many and difficult. TED gives no clear answer and appears to have deliberately chosen speakers with very different perspectives, letting the audience make up their own minds. The mood is serious and thoughtful.

Which is why comedian George Civeris provides the most cathartic moment of the week. He says TED is “the only place that brings together people all trying to solve the world’s problems.”

We in the audience look at each other and feel satisfied. Despite these difficult questions, we are doing our best. We have flown halfway around the world to try to work out what the future might look like — and someone has seen us.

But then comes Civeris’s punchline: “and then mixes them with all those who created the problems in the first place.”

The laughter that follows is long-awaited. And a little painful.

Apple’s trump card — hidden in the phone

SvD Näringsliv

This analysis was first published in SvD Näringsliv, in Swedish, on April 9th, 2026. This piece was translated from Swedish by Claude. Some phrasing may differ from a human translation.

While competitors spend hundreds of billions on AI, Apple sits tight. It looked like a major mistake. But the next phase of AI development could be Apple’s revenge.

In a red leather armchair on a stage sits Steve Jobs. It is 2010, the year before he passes away, and Jobs is visibly physically affected by his illness.

His sharp tongue is still very much intact, however. When journalist Walt Mossberg asks about “search company Siri,” which Apple recently acquired, Jobs cuts him off immediately: “I don’t know if I would describe Siri as a search company,” he says. “They’re in the AI space.”

Somewhere around there — sixteen years ago — began Apple’s public journey toward AI. But the road has been anything but straight. After repeated disappointments with Siri, which neither understands what you say nor can do very much, the image of Apple as an AI company has faded.

Have they missed the wave they themselves were so early to identify? It is not quite that simple.

ChatGPT, Claude, and Google Gemini have admittedly sprinted past and created exactly what Siri was supposed to become. Companies like Meta, Google, and OpenAI have invested hundreds of billions of dollars in AI data centres.

In the short term, Apple is behind — but in the long term there is an opportunity for a strategy that competitors will find very difficult to replicate. At least at the same scale that Apple has.

If we begin with the shortcomings, they are obvious even internally at Apple. A licensing agreement with Google from January speaks clearly: Apple currently has no AI model of comparable quality to the competition. Siri is now to use Google Gemini going forward. Apple has had to reorganise its AI work after its previous head suddenly left prematurely.

Many Apple fans consider it a smart strategy to work with partnerships rather than participate in a very expensive race with other tech giants. What argues against it is all the work that has been ongoing with Siri over all these years. It is the inability to produce a good result that led to the partnership with Google — not a decision to not try. And the resources are there. Apple sits on around 1,350 billion kronor in cash and securities.

Looking further ahead, however, one can begin to glimpse something exciting — and entirely unique to Apple. Should AI development move in a certain direction, Apple could catch up despite its sluggishness.

In simplified terms, AI development can be divided into two parts — “training” and “inference.”

Training is the training of the AI model itself, a process that requires enormous computing power. When Anthropic and Meta release new models, the price tag for training them is counted in tens of billions of kronor. The enormous data centres filled with Nvidia’s GPU chips are used primarily for this type of training.

Inference is when the model is used to give you as a user an answer. It is drawing conclusions from the information in the model so that it can tailor responses to what you have asked. This does not require anywhere near the same type of computing power as training. And even more importantly in this context — in many cases it can be done directly on your phone, or your iPhone.

As AI models become more efficient, Apple’s own chips are emerging as a strong strategic advantage. In the over one billion iPhones in use today there is hardware that Apple does not sell to anyone else. With newer generations of AI models, one can imagine them being trained separately but then run on the user’s own device. Apple Silicon — their own chip — could then answer questions for the user without the information ever needing to leave the phone. It is private, fast — and everything you need is already in your phone.

Looking at Apple’s competitors, none of them has this capability. Meta has no mobile phones at all, and Google’s Pixel phones have a very low market share globally. OpenAI is working on various hardware products but nothing has been released yet. And unlike building data centres, it is next to impossible to roll out a new mobile phone that achieves the same coverage as the iPhone has. It does not solve everything when it comes to AI development, but it is an enormous advantage in distribution.

Apple’s journey toward AI seemed to begin with Siri in 2010. But the truly unique difference only started to become visible ten years later, with the launch of the Apple Silicon chips. Here Apple has something competitors find very difficult to match: a technology they developed themselves, and which is perfectly suited to AI.

It is a long game that Apple is playing. They will also need to get their own AI development in order over time. The need for AI training is not going to diminish. But the trump card is already in place.

You have it in your pocket — inside your iPhone.