This analysis was first published in SvD Näringsliv, in Swedish, on November 22nd, 2022. This piece was translated from Swedish by Claude. Some phrasing may differ from a human translation.
Hoping for a new Squid Game this winter? You might be disappointed. Everything points to Netflix’s content becoming more like Seinfeld than big prestige dramas. The reason: a new business model.
“We basically sold nuclear weapons to a third-world country, and now they’re using them against us.”
It sounds like a declaration of war — for good reason. But the slightly dramatic statement came before the war in Ukraine, and carries less geopolitical weight than it implies. We’re talking about streaming. Nothing more serious than that.
The quote comes from Bob Iger, the then-former CEO of Disney. He was talking about how the entertainment giant licensed its content to Netflix for years. It was good money in the short term, but it also meant Disney+ took a long time to launch.
When those contracts expired, Netflix went from being a customer to being a competitor.
Last weekend, Bob Iger reclaimed the CEO role after his successor Bob Chapek was fired after just over two years. The internal power dynamics at Disney are a story in themselves — but what matters for this analysis is what it means for the streaming market.
Until now, Netflix has been able to focus solely on its subscribers. Now it has added a new target audience: advertisers.
For anyone who has worked in commercial television, this is nothing revolutionary. It’s how the industry has always worked. For Netflix, it is not trivial.
Suddenly, the streaming giant needs to ask itself what advertisers think about its content. And the answer to that question has major consequences for what content gets made.
Netflix ads haven’t arrived in Sweden yet, but the effects are already becoming visible — through the shows they commission and acquire.
Julia Alexander at the newsletter Puck calls this the “Seinfeld strategy.” What works well right now is comedy — preferably light, something you can watch actively or have on in the background. Timeless themes where familiarity is part of the charm. Seinfeld and The Office are the clearest examples.
Netflix’s own comedy Blockbuster — set inside the video rental chain they helped kill — fits the mould exactly.
The ad-supported tier points in one clear direction: safer, more mainstream content. Nothing that alienates advertisers, nothing too challenging or niche.
The hope is that you’ll sit there with half an eye on the TV while scrolling on your phone. A few ads roll by in the background. Bingo.
That, in essence, is Netflix’s new business model.
