This analysis was first published in SvD Näringsliv, in Swedish, on November 28th, 2023. This piece was translated from Swedish by Claude. Some phrasing may differ from a human translation.
Viaplay is pushing back its quarterly figures once again. All focus is now on which owners will step forward and want to reshape the company.
When listed companies report their quarterly figures, the conversation usually turns to how they have performed against market expectations. The most basic expectation is that the quarterly figures actually show up.
That did not happen for Viaplay at the end of October, when they were originally due. Instead, a press release went out the evening before announcing they would arrive by November 29th at the latest.
Early on Wednesday morning came the next update: the report was being pushed back by one more day.
Delaying your results is not something you do unless you really have to. The press release speaks of talks between existing shareholders about how the business should be financed going forward. There is good reason to think the conversations are more complicated than that.
Viaplay — in its current form — is unlikely to survive much longer.
In mid-September, Norwegian media giant Schibsted* stepped in as a major new shareholder in Viaplay. They took what is known as a “corner” — 10.1 percent — which is just enough ownership to block any sale of the company without Schibsted’s consent. Other major shareholders include French group Canal+ and the fund PPF Cyprus Management.
It is this group that now needs to sort out Viaplay’s future. The exact agenda of each major shareholder is hard to speculate about, but in Schibsted’s case, recent events point clearly in one direction.
In September 2018, Schibsted announced it would split the company in two. Its marketplaces would be separately listed and renamed Adevinta. The rest of the business would remain under the Schibsted name.
There were, however, some clear exceptions. Not all of Schibsted’s marketplaces would go into the newly formed Adevinta. Swedish Blocket, Norwegian Finn, and Finnish Tori were retained. The split was made along geographical lines — the Nordic companies stayed, and the rest were shipped off. The message was clear: Schibsted is to become a purely Nordic company.
Adevinta is relevant here for another reason too. Last week, Schibsted announced its intention to sell 60 percent of its stake in Adevinta to a newly formed consortium, receiving around 23.5 billion kronor.
When the Adevinta deal was finalised, Schibsted’s CEO Kristin Skogen Lund declined to link it to Viaplay. “First and foremost, the money belongs to our shareholders,” she told Dagens industri.
Although Viaplay might be thought of as a Swedish company, it also has operations in the US, Canada, the UK, Poland, and the Netherlands, among others — parts that Schibsted is almost certainly not interested in at all.
The negotiations between the major shareholders have most likely been about how to divide Viaplay’s different markets between them. Schibsted will want the Nordics, but not much else. On top of that comes the division of the expensive but potentially valuable sports rights. The rest would either be taken over by Canal+, restructured into a standalone entity — or sold, assuming a buyer can be found.
Meanwhile, as negotiations continue, the day-to-day business is in deep trouble. Viaplay’s share price has fallen more than 88 percent this year. It has payment obligations of 38 billion kronor for sports rights over the next three years — more than double the company’s entire annual turnover.
Given these complicated circumstances, it is understandable that the quarterly report has been delayed. And that a temporarily disgruntled stock market is the least of Viaplay’s problems.
If the owners can reach agreement, we may see the outlines of a new Nordic media giant take shape. Schibsted would then considerably strengthen its position, owning TV and streaming operations in addition to the news media and internet services it already has.
With a billion-kronor injection from the Adevinta sale, further Nordic acquisitions could well follow.
If the negotiations fail, Viaplay faces a very difficult road ahead. Divided major shareholders, a structural crisis in the streaming market, and high interest payments to service. Something has to give. All signs suggest that the Viaplay we see today will be very short-lived.
*Schibsted is listed on the Oslo Stock Exchange. In Sweden, the group owns, among others, Svenska Dagbladet, Aftonbladet, Blocket, and Lendo.
