This analysis was first published in SvD Näringsliv, in Swedish, on August 28th, 2026. This piece was translated from Swedish by Claude. Some phrasing may differ from a human translation.

The soaring share price at Sivers Semiconductors has turned into a headache for the company. Now that the momentum is fading, what mostly remains are big promises about the future. The numbers right now tell a very different story.

The stock market is forward-looking, as the saying goes. That is especially true of the Swedish semiconductor company Sivers Semiconductors, which has surged on the exchange after a sudden and enormous burst of interest from investors.

By talking about a “pipeline” of possible customer agreements, the company seems to want to shift attention away from its figures right now and toward a rose-tinted future.

Having just seen Sivers’ new numbers in Friday morning’s quarterly report, that strategy is easy to understand. Operating losses had nearly tripled, while revenue fell. And now the enormous share price rally the business has enjoyed has turned into a burden.

Sivers’ materials state that its pipeline grew to $1.2 billion in July. Given that revenue in the quarter just ended was only SEK 53.8 million, the list of prospective deals looks close to gigantic. It would mean an increase in sales of more than 21,000 percent compared with the previous quarter.

But that is unlikely to happen. The list contains no binding agreements. It is instead a roster of customers and transactions that could conceivably materialize. The reason companies report certain specific key figures is that accounting standards are the same for everyone. You know they hold up, and you can compare them with other firms in the same category.

This roster of prospective customers is not one of those. There is no guarantee that any of the deals actually happen.

There are now signs that the market has sobered up somewhat. Sivers’ share price is admittedly still up more than 860 percent over the past six months, but on Friday the company shed a fifth of its value the moment trading opened. Volumes are falling too. There is simply not the same appetite for Sivers Semiconductors as there was a couple of months ago – and with results like these, it will be hard to rekindle.

The company’s supporters argue that it is wrong to judge Sivers by its share price. You have to look at the underlying technology and the potential ahead instead. As general advice for analyzing a business, that is sound.

But when a stock lands in the middle of a frenzy like the one Sivers has been through, a strange picture emerges. The share and the company almost lead two separate lives. If everyone who bought in had a perfect grasp of the market for its products – optical transmitter modules and silicon photonics solutions, among others – that would be one thing.

But that is rarely how it works.

A company can have extraordinary potential, but you cannot set aside what is happening on the exchange at the same time. Least of all when senior insiders have chosen to sell shares. That they are taking advantage of a high valuation is understandable. But it sends a questionable signal. Do they not believe in this vast pipeline themselves?

The downside of a huge rally is that the momentum then has to be sustained for a long time. There needs to be a credible path – even one lying far into the future – to justifying what the market has put on the business. Otherwise it becomes difficult to hold shareholders’ attention. That is an unusual challenge. Most listed companies have never seen, and never will see, gains of several hundred percent in a matter of months.

Friday’s reaction on the exchange suggests Sivers Semiconductors will struggle with it. Whether the pipeline is accurate and will be realized is impossible to say.

But the company has a large problem right now, and that is coping with a share price which has priced in near-miraculous success in the relatively near term.

When the quarterly figures show the opposite, that becomes one more weight to carry.

And it takes time that management could have spent turning potential deals into real revenue.