This analysis was first published in SvD Näringsliv, in Swedish, on November 3rd, 2026. This piece was translated from Swedish by Claude. Some phrasing may differ from a human translation.
Elon Musk has poured money into Republican candidates ahead of tonight’s midterm elections. A lot is at stake for the billionaire, whose planned super-merger could hang in the balance.
“When it comes to spending money on political causes, I’m going to do a lot less of it in the future.”
That was Elon Musk, speaking before a gathering of the financial elite in Doha in May 2025. But he added an important caveat: if he ever saw a reason to open his wallet for politics, he would do it. And ahead of tonight’s midterms, such a reason has appeared.
Musk is the single largest donor of the American midterms – with nearly half a billion dollars. Every cent has gone to the Republicans – because suddenly a great deal is at stake.
After running DOGE at the national level, Musk’s political interest has turned local as well. Back in 2024, he clashed with the state of Delaware over a compensation package from Tesla. Musk lost, and urged everyone to start companies in Nevada or Texas instead.
A couple of months later he took his own advice, moving both Tesla and SpaceX to Texas. And it is in Texas that one of the most consequential votes of the midterms is now taking place.
Traditionally, the state has been a safe bet for the Republicans, who haven’t elected a Democratic senator there in 32 years. Now things look different. That is why Musk has donated around $190 million, roughly SEK 1.8 billion, to political campaigns in Texas. That is 40 percent of the $474 million total.
The reason is the Democratic upstart James Talarico. In polls he appears to lead Ken Paxton, the Republican challenger – and the beneficiary of Musk’s millions. Talarico has openly criticized Musk and said that “Texas is not for sale,” a reference to all the money that has gone to his opponent.
For Musk – who has moved both his companies and himself to Texas – the election matters enormously, on several levels.
Should Talarico win in Texas, the Republican majority in the Senate could tip. That could in turn lead to scrutiny of both Tesla and SpaceX – in particular the merger the companies are now exploring. A deal of that magnitude would require approval from competition authorities, and they are heavily influenced by the political climate. If Musk is to get his way, continued Republican dominance would be far preferable.
Musk’s business empire also has many ties to the state apparatus. Tesla is affected by various tax credits for electric vehicles, and SpaceX has large contracts with the space agency NASA. If the political capital Musk has built up with Trump looks set to weaken, the outlook for his companies could suffer – something that may show up quickly in the stock prices.
Local issues matter too. After a vote among around 300 residents, Musk managed to rename the area of Boca Chica as Starbase, home of SpaceX. With its grand ambitions in both space and AI, questions such as building permits and access to water and electricity could become major issues.
So the ambition to tone down his role as a political player has not gone particularly well for Elon Musk. In little more than a year, he has gone from saying he would scale back sharply to being the top donor of the entire election.
What happened? It looks as if Musk and his group of companies have more political dependencies than they would like to admit. The Tesla–SpaceX merger in particular – something Musk himself seems to have been aiming for over several years – could be blocked if the Democrats win a majority in both the Senate and the House. So out comes the checkbook again.
Tech billionaires have never had as much influence in politics as they do now. And the most powerful of them all also happens to be the world’s richest man.
It helps, when you want to buy political favors in the United States.
